DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY

INTRODUCTION:-The demographic transition theory is one of the most important population theories, which is best documented by the data and statistics of recent demographic history. In its original form, it was put forward by W.S. Thompson (1929) and Frank Notestein (1945). These demographers based their statements and arguments on the trends in fertility and mortality, being experienced in Europe, Anglo- America, and Australia. Notestein suggested the existence of three stages in the transition: i) High growth potential exists before fertility begins to decline. ii) population growth slackens once fertility decline becomes well established in the transition growth stage. iii) Incipient decline occurs when fertility falls below the replacement level & when mortality has already established at a low level. In the present-day world, as would be true of any point in time, different countries of the world are at different stages of demographic transition. 

BACKGROUND OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY:- In ancient times, the world population grew gradually, and it was almost static for a long time because both the birth rate and death rates were high. Later the countries of northwest Europe – England, France, and Sweden began to attain a new kind of demographic stability that is low population growth, not through high fertility or high mortality but through low fertility and low mortality. These two conditions are known as “the old balance” and “the new balance respectively”. The shift in population from the old balance to the new balance, experienced by Europe, North America, Australia, and New Zealand and later by Japan is known as “the demographic transition” means the period of evolution of these countries from “a predominantly agrarian peasant economy” to “an economy with a greater division of labor, using more elaborate tools and equipment, more urbanized, more oriented to the market sale of its products and characterized by rapid and pervasive changes in technique.” Some demographers attempted to formulate a generalized explanation of the process of the decline in mortality and fertility and postulated a theory called the theory of demographic transition. Warren Thompson, C.P. Blacker, Frank Notestein, Ansley J. Coale, and Edgar M. Hoover tried to elaborate on this theory by describing the various stages of population growth as based on birth and death rates 

ASSUMPTIONS OF THE THEORY:-Following are the basic assumptions of the demographic transition theory:-

1. Population growth and levels of economic development are the two faces of the same coin 

2. Low population growth either refers -  Very backward region  Very economically and socially developed region 

3. Population growth is an organic and dynamic phenomenon The model of demographic transition shows how the population growth of a country (here the UK, as the UK recorded high-quality data of demography at that time) actually changes over some time. Thus, the theory postulates a particular pattern of demographic change from high fertility & high mortality to low fertility and low mortality, when society progresses from a largely rural, agrarian & illiterate society to a dominantly urban, industrial & literate society. The three very clearly stated hypotheses involved in the process are:-

1. The decline in mortality comes before the decline of infertility. 

2. The fertility eventually declines to match the fertility. 

3. The demographic transformation of the society takes place simultaneously with the socio-economic transformation of the society and they are highly responsive to each other. The original theories of Thompson & Notestein on the Demographic Transition Theory were subsequently refined & reformulated with time. And now the demographic transition theory is characterized by five conspicuous transition stages.

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

 

STAGE-I (High Fluctuating):- In the first stage of DTT both the CBR& CDR fluctuates at a high level which is over35 per 1000 people. Thus, this stage represents almost stable or slow population growth with a natural increase of around 5 per 1000 people. CBR is high in this stage because of no birth control or family planning & so many children die in infancy(IMR was as high as more than 150 per 1000) that parents tend to produce more in the hope that several will survive, the complete absence of mechanization in the field of agriculture needed more hands, some religious beliefs encourage large families. CDR is also high but its behavior is highly erratic in nature due to various diseases, epidemics, famines, uncertain food supplies, poor hygiene & least development in the field of medicines. This stage occurs in agrarian societies where the general productivity level is low, large families are an asset, life expectancy is low, the development of the non-agricultural sector is at its infancy stage, masses are illiterate, technological know-how is lacking and urban development is limited. So, this stage is popularly known as the Pre-Industrial stage. At present, it is very difficult to ascertain whether any country would be in this initial stage of DTT though rare e.g., can be Ethiopia, Bangladesh, Rain forest tribes, etc. Most of the developed countries of now we're in this stage before 1760 i.e. before the industrial revolution like UK, America, Europe, Australia. India was in this stage up to the year 1921. 

STAGE-II (Early Expanding):- The second stage of DTT is characterized by a high and gradually declining fertility of over 30 per 1000 people and a sharply reduced mortality rate of over 20 per 1000 people. In this stage, the Industrial Revolution (IR)took place in the UK (1760-1860/80) which significantly contributed to lowering the mortality as govt. started earning revenue & invested heavily in the social sector. So, in this stage of DTT, while improvements in medical Page | 17 facilities( like vaccination, hospitals, doctors, etc.), sanitation & water supply, increased food production (both in terms of quality & quantity) due to increased productivity &efficient distribution system (as IR has pushed the infrastructural development) results in a sharp decline in the mortality rates but the fertility maintains a high level, at least in the early 2nd stage. As the 2nd stage prolongs, fertility also shows signs of gradual decline. As with the better medical treatment life expectancy starts improving, the processes of industrialization & urban development become prominent, large families are no longer remain an asset. Consequently, fertility undergoes a gradual decline leading to a gradual squeeze of the rate of natural increase at the end of the 2nd stage. Thus, as a whole in the 2nd stage, the population expands, first at a gradually increasing rate & afterward at a gradually subsiding rate with an average natural increase of around 10-15 persons per 1000 people. The declining share of the agricultural sector in total GDP & growing share of the industrial sector in total GDP is a classical character of 2nd stage. Thus, this stage is popularly known as 1 st Industrial Phase. Most of the middle east countries of the world are passing through this explosive stage of demographic transition. UK was in this stage during IR & India was in this stage from1921 to to 1951. 

STAGE-III (Late Expanding):-In this stage, birth rates fall rapidly, to perhaps 20 per 1000 people, while death rates continue to fall slightly, to 15 per 1000 people leading to a slowly increasing population with a natural increase of around 0-5 persons per 1000 people. This stage is considered as 2nd Industrial Phase where the share of the industrial sector in total GDP & employment opportunity though increases but at a slower rate, the share of agricultural sector declines drastically &tertiary sector is on the rise. The fall in the birth rates may be due to lower IMR which reduces the stress of having many children, increased industrialization & mechanization involving fewer laborers, improvement in the family planning aspect (use of contraceptives, sterilization, abortion & govt. incentives for smaller families), increased desire for material possessions (car, holidays, bigger homes) & less desire for large Despite all controversy, it has universal applicability i.e., it can be applied for any country if proper data is available. So, this model is very helpful in comparing rates of population growth between different countries at a given point in time. family, the emancipation of women enabling them to be carrier oriented rather than being solely child bearers. The UK was in this stage right from 1880-to 1940. Most of the South American countries are now in this stage, most of the South Asian countries except Japan, Israel, South Korea lies in the 1st half of this stage, Latin American Countries lies in the middle half of this stage& India represents a very unique characteristic with north Indian countries showing trends of 1st half & south Indian countries showing trends of 2nd half of this stage. 

STAGE-IV (Low Fluctuating):-This stage of demographic transition is attained when both birth rates & death rates decline appreciably to 16 per 1000 population & 12 per 1000 population respectively, fluctuating slightly to give a steady population with a natural increase of around 2-4 persons per 1000 people. Though the population growth is very minimal in both the 1st& 4th stages unlike the 1 stage where fertility is high & stable, mortality is high & erratic but here mortality is low & stable, the fertility is low & fluctuating. And the set of socio-economic conditions also varies from that of the 1st stage, here the society is highly urbanized, Quaternary & quinary sector is on the rising, the technical know-how is abundant, Govt. become totally a welfare government, deliberate control on family-size are common, the literacy level & degree of labor specialization is high. This stage is popularly known as Post Industrial Stage. The UK after 1940 showed the sign of this stage. Most of the developed countries like Germany, Scandinavian countries, the USA, Canada, Australia lie in this stage. The Indian state of Kerala shows the sign of this stage whereas Tamil Nadu is in the 3rd stage & Bihar has just completed the 2nd stage of DTT.

STAGE-V (Contracting Stage):- Theoretically, in the 5th stage of DTT, a country experiences loss to the overall population or negative population growth as the birth rate falls slightly lower than the death rate which results in population decline. This stage has only been recently recognized, and there are very few countries that are considered in stage 5. Some evidence suggests that this might be occurring in several western European countries. This occurs mainly due to an increase in non-traditional lifestyles, greater economic independence of women, the rise of individualism & which may be due to a lack of resources for future generations. '

Like all models, the demographic transition model has its own limitations. It failed to consider the following factors

1. The model being Eurocentric, has considered the experiences of developed countries but not the developing countries. It has been assumed that in time all countries would pass through the same four stages, but it seems unlikely now as the question arises would the countries like Africa ever become industrialized?? 

2. The model has given supreme importance to industrial activities but many countries have completed DTT, based on the pastoral economy like France, Latin American countries, etc. 

3. The model has assumed that the fall in the DR in the 2nd stage was the consequence of industrialization. But initially, the DR in many British cities rose due to insanitary conditions & it began to fall just after the medical advancement. The delayed fall in DR in many developing countries was due to their inability to afford medical facilities.

4. In many countries, the fall in the BR in the 3rd stage has not been so rapid as the model suggests & it is due to religious or political opposition to birth controls. Whereas in some countries the fall was much more rapid & came earlier like in Brazil & in China following the ‘one-child’ policy. 

5. The time scale of the model, especially in several southeast Asian countries such as Hong Kong, Malaysia, is being squashed as they develop at a much faster rate than the early industrialized countries. Conclusion Despite all controversy, it has universal applicability i.e., it can be applied to any country if proper data is available. So, this model is very helpful in comparing rates of population growth between different countries at a given point in time.