INTRODUCTION
GROWTH OF POPULATION:-Growth of the population refers to the change in the number of inheritances of a country or territory during a specific period. Say, during the last 10 years, the population change is about changes in population composition; like age-sex structure, sex ratio, literacy rate, occupational structure, etc. The current population in the world is now greater than 7.4 billion, estimated by the United States Census Bureau (USCB) in 2016. But current projection shows that with a continued increase shortly the global population is expected to reach between 8.5 billion to 10.9 billion by 2050.
POPULATION GROWTH PATTERN:-Pattern of population growth in which a population starts out growing slowly but grows faster and faster as the population size increases. Two types of population growth patterns may occur depending on specific environmental conditions: An exponential growth pattern occurs in an ideal, unlimited environment & a logistic growth pattern occurs when environmental pressures slow the rate of growth.
GLOBAL NORTH & GLOBAL SOUTH:-The concept of Global North & Global South was originated in a 1952 article by Alfred Sauvy entitled "Trois Mondes, Une Planète." The terms the North and the South, when used in a global context, are alternative designations for “developed” and “developing” countries. Together, the North and South constitute virtually the entire global population. As terms, the North and the South emerged during the 1970s, probably simultaneously, and in contrast with each other. This article thus discusses these two terms together.
GLOBAL NORTH
The global North refers to ‘Developed Countries’ of Europe and North America, which are characterized by established democracy, wealth, technological advancement, political stability, aging population, zero population growth, and dominance of world trade and politics. Generally, definitions of the Global North include the G8 countries, the United States, Canada, all member states of the European Union, Israel, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, as well as Australia and New Zealand, and four of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, excluding China
GLOBAL SOUTH
The Global South refers to the ‘Developing Countries’. An emerging term ‘Global South’ is used by the World Bank to refer to low- and middle-income countries located in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean which contrast to the high-income nations of the Global North. These nations are often described as newly industrialized or in the process of industrializing, are largely considered by freedom indices to have lower-quality democracies, and frequently have a history of colonialism by Northern, often European states. Generally, The BRIC countries, Brazil, Russia, India, and China, along with Indonesia, have the largest populations economies among Southern states.
Factors that affect population growth The key factor of Population growth is natural increase. It is also determined by Birth rates and mortality rates are, in turn, determined by a combination of factors. Often economic growth and economic development have led to a decline in population growth, but there are no hard and fast rules, and other factors, such as availability of family planning, social expectations, and government intervention can play an important role.
Factors influencing population growth:-
(a)Education:- Education makes a huge change in the thought process of people. In the developed world, educated women or women who are working, have often chosen to get married later and delay having children because they prefer to work and concentrate on their careers. And in developing countries, due to the lack of education or awareness children are considered as. But, in today’s scenario, family planning is playing an important role also in developing countries.
(b)Economic factors:– In general, there is a negative relationship between economic pattern & rate of population growth. That means, developing countries tend to have higher rates of population growth. In agriculturally based societies, children are seen as potential income earners to help their families. In developed countries the population growth rate is low; here the children are no longer economic assets – but economic costs.
(c)Medical facilities:- Increased availability of contraception can enable women to limit family size closer to the desired level. In the developing world, the availability of contraception is more limited, and this can lead to unplanned pregnancies and more rapid population growth. Due to the improvement in medical facilities, the number of deaths is become decreasing, which also leads to population growth.
(d)Social and cultural factors:-India and China (before one family policy) had strong social attachments to having large families. In the developed world, smaller families are the norm.
POPULATION GROWTH RATE:-Population growth rate is how fast a population changes in size over time. Population growth is determined by rates of birth, death, immigration, and emigration
(a)Birth Rate- There are two main ways that individuals are added to the population. The first is through the births of new individuals. The way we measure additions of this type is with the natality rate (also called the birth rate), which is the number of births per 1000 individuals per unit of time, usually per year.
(b)Immigration Rate-The second way individuals are added to the population is through immigration. This is the permanent arrival of new individuals into the population. These individuals are of the same species as the rest of the population, and they increase the size of the population as they join the group.
(c)Mortality Rate- We have two main ways that individuals leave a population and reduce its size. The first is through the deaths of individuals. We measure this with the mortality rate (also called the death rate), which is the number of deaths per 1000 individuals per unit of time. Again, this period is usually a year.
(d)Emigration Rate:-Second individuals may leave through emigration. This is the permanent movement of individuals out of a population. These may be juveniles who are heading out on their own, or they may be adults leaving the group for some other reason such as overcrowding or searching for new areas of food and shelter.
WORLD POPULATION GROWTH PATTERN
The world population is the total number of humans that reached 7.7 billion in April 2019. In the demographic history of the world, it takes 200,000 years to reach 1 billion & only 200 years to reach to 7 billion & the population growth was highest, 2.07% in 1970. Though the population growth rate started to decline after 1970 & it reached to 1.70% in1980 & 1.20 % in 2012. However, the population growth rate is still increasing & is projected to reach more than 8 billion in 2025 & 9 billion in 2050.
The table shows the relationship between population growth & time is taken from 1810 to 2011. It took 120 years to grow 1 billion population from 1810 to 1930. In the world demographic history, it took a very short duration of time, 11 years to increase 1 billion population from 1988 to 1999. Socioeconomic development, various welfare planning are the main controlling factors to take the duration of population growth. At the present time, most of the developing countries are responsible to take a short duration of time because of their high fertility rate & low mortality rate.
The above table of population growth of the world shows the different population growth rates of the world from 1800 to 2012 & also estimated the year 2020 & different phases of population growth are noticed.
The phase of 1800 – 1920:-in this phase the population growth rate was very low because of the high mortality rate due to political unrest, wars (1st world war) in the European countries; colonial rule, famine, starvation, malnutrition in the Asian & rest of the other countries of the world.
The phase of 1920 – 1960:-population growth increased gradually in this phase political stability after the 2nd World War.
The phase of 1960 – 1990:-population growth increased highly because of the high fertility rate & and low mortality rate due to the improvement of socio-economic growth, the implication of planning & development in health, education, economy, etc. In these phases, the population growth was highest,2.07% in 1970 & it is the highest population growth in the history of world demography.
Phase after 1990:-In this phase population growth rate started to decline & it reached 1.20% in 2012 from 1.56% in 1990 as the result of socio-economic development in the developed as well as in the developing countries. Though the high population growth rate remains in the developing countries which causes the increasing the population at present time.
The above data tables show a population growth rate of 2012 in the developed & the developing countries of the world. The growth rate of the developed counties is very low, few have a negative population growth rate. The high population growth rate remains in developing countries. Various socio-economic conditions are responsible for the variation of population growth rate between developed & developing countries.
POPULATION GROWTH PATTERN IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
The world as a whole has a population of 7.7 billion whereas developed counties occupy about 19.3%. Since we are discussing developed countries; the word “DEVELOPED” must be clearly understood. Thus “the countries which are more industrialized and have higher per capita income levels of around or about $12,000 stable population growth, high HDI where the inhabitants consume 88% of the world's resource” can be considered as developed countries.
In 2012 the list of developed countries are:-
1. U.S.A. 8.Singapore
2. Canada 9. Taiwan
3. Japan 10. Israel
4. Korea 11. western Europe
5. Australia 12. Sweden
6. New Zealand 13. Switzerland
7. Scandinavia 14. Germany
The human development index is a statistic composite index of life expectancy, education, and per capita income indicators which are used to rank countries into four tiers of human development. A country scores a higher HDI when the life span is higher, the education level is higher, and gross national income per capita is higher (developed by Pakistani economist Mahbub Ul Haq and Indian economist Amartya Sen) Even though there are differences between different developed countries like size, man-land ratio and hence their attractiveness for external migrants, their attitude towards population size growth structure and policy example: the USA in contrast to Russia. for the basic understanding, they are considered as a single unit. To understand this developed pattern the process can be subdivided into the following three phases.
Up to 1750 before the onset of the industrial revolution, the population in the developed was experiencing a growth rate of 0.33 from 1652 – 1750 which was happening after 200 years of stagnation. A recent estimate by American historian Jan De Vries set European population (excluding Russia, Ottoman Empire). At 61.6 million in 1500, 70.2 million in 1550, 78.6 million in 1600 then lapsed back to 74.6 in 1650. During the 17th century, the population of these countries increased very gradually because of many disasters like cold waves, crop failure, famine, rebellion, and epidemics up to 1750 with the 106 million population the developed region had a 20.91% share on a global scale with most of the countries like North America Oceania(1652-1750) showing 0% growth rate and only the European region had a positive growth rate of 0.34%.
1750-1950: From the mid-18th century mortality condition in Europe began to improve as a result of socio-economic development which followed first the agricultural revolution and later the industrial revolution. It was around 1800 when the world population reached 1 billion and the developed region occupied 21.93% with 912 million. While some of the population explosion in Europe after 1800 derived for a while from” higher fertility”; declining mortality eventually became more important. the reduction in death rate was partly due to the greater availability of food supply, establishment of conditions of better law and order, and standard of living. This reduction in death rate was however also due to the advancement of medical technology and reforms in the field of environmental sanitation and public health (vaccine; smallpox 1799, puerperal fever1843, polio 1929). Most of this fertility followed the downward trend, which concentrated in a few decades starting in 1870 and accelerating after 1890. In some countries like the UK, Germany, Sweden, Netherlands, Finland, and Belgium there were sustained and sometimes marked increased infertility before decline set in. For example, the average no. of children per woman rose from 4.5-5.5 in the Netherlands between 1850-1880. By 1900 it had returned to its earlier level. In most European countries the first significant reduction in fertility occurred after the 1880s and some countries saw a large reduction in infant mortality before fertility started to decline. While in the case of the USA the high growth rate of 3.65 was justifiable by the continuous immigration from Europe and partly due to the early marriage and extremely high marital fertility.
With the medical advancement, the growth rate reached its highest of 1.05(1850-1900) which slipped to the rate of 0.92 (1900-1920) because of the 1st world war where casualties occurred between 20.5 – 22 m. The growth again felt a major setback by the great economic depression from 1929-1930 during which the world witnessed a global GDP decline from -26.7%, as a result, people avoided getting married and having children as purchasing power and supporting power for the family has reduced considerably. With a little period of economic recession, the population growth again escalated because of the 2nd world war. Europe was severely affected resulting in a growth rate of 0.05% per year the lowest level reached in several centuries. From 1950 After the 2nd world war following economic recovery there was a short “BABY BOOM” phase in Europe and North America. In the case of Europe, the growth continued up to 1956 until it started tapering off with the change in socio and economic conditions. The same case was experienced over North America and Oceania up to 1960 resulting in an increased rate of population growth. Between 1950-1960 the developed region added more than 100m with oceanic countries showing the highest rate of 2.38 /365.
The legalization of abortion and easy access to various kinds of contraception and other methods from the 1950s played a major role. Until the late 19th century those below the age of 20 made up for 50% of the total population while those over 60 0nly constituted a small minority. In Europe low fertility and increasing life expectancy, both reversed the age structure leading to the shrinking no of younger people. The TFR of 1.78 is lower than the replacement level 2.1. On contrary to the shrinkage natural increase is giving way to the international migration where they accounted for about 8.3% of western and central Europe’s total population. The sharpest decline is to be found in the former socialist states, mainly those resulting from the breakup of the former USSR where the deficit is compounded by negative net migration.
FUTURE PROSPECT:- With the yearly change of only 0.6%(Europe) and 1.28%(Australia) it is expected to continue decline in TFR thus the natural increase. Projected demographic change has a significant impact on future age structure. In the European Union, the working-age population (15-64) years was 328 m in 2005. This group started to decline from 2015 depicting it will reach 314 m in 2025 and 2068 min 2050. UN projection indicates that this decline will be even larger in the CIS countries including Russia. All these projections assume continuing net gains from migration in the order of 40 m people during the period 2005-2050. In the absence of any international migration, this decline would be even larger. It means a decrease in the labor force participant and as a result of increasing life expectancy and the aging of the baby boom generation, the age group 65+ will grow from 81m (2005) – 111m in 2025 and to 1401m in 2050. This is an increase of some 60m dependent people. Today for every 100 Europeans working for age group 15-65 there are 25 senior citizens in the age group 65+. A nation basically depends upon its young working population. Thus, the developed countries must follow or introduce some policies like higher retirement age, higher labor force participation rates of women, Higher labor force participation rates of migrants Active family policy (improving domestic fertility rates) Proactive economic migration policy (countries with current and future shortage of labor and skill) for the future demographic problem.
POPULATION GROWTH PATTERN IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
In the world, there are around 157 developing countries and 85% of people live in these countries, where population growth is about 1.1% as per the record of 2011. But this growth rate fluctuates over time to time which has been shown in the following table.
The reason behind changing pattern of population growth
The population growth rate in developing countries was very low from 1650 to 1750. As in this time, there was no machinery developed, people used to live in an unhygienic society. An unhygienic environment increased the mortality rate, which ultimately results in slower population growth. From 1750 to 1800 population growth in developing countries increase at a minimal rate than the developed countries because there was no positive effect of the industrial revolution. From 1800 to 1850 population growth rate of developing countries suddenly decrease. Due to frequent famine, drought, epidemics many people died, which increase the death rate. But the birth rate remains the same, as a result, the growth rate decreases. During the time of 1850 to 1900, most of the developed nations used their colonial power and drain our natural resources from the developing nations and improve the economy of their own nation. For this purpose, they force the farmers to harvest cash crops instead of food crops. As a result, in developing countries, inadequate food supply generates hunger conditions. Thus, the mortality rate increase but the fertility rate remains high as usual and the population growth rate tends to increase. After that, the world experienced World War I (1914-1918), which decrease the population size as many people died in this war. But the loss of manpower in developing countries was quite low as these countries were not the main participants. So, during the phase of 1900 to 1920 population growth was more or less the same compared to the previous period. In the year 1930 Agricultural Revolution take place in developing countries, which improve food supply inadequate amount, provide nutritious food. Thus, longevity increases which cause population growth. Almost at this time, developing countries were situated in the Early Expanding/ Industrial Stage of Demographic Transition, when the industrial revolution take place. During this time transportation facilities developed, slow improvement in health care/sanitation, the literacy rate increased. As a result, the mortality rate decreases dramatically, and the population growth rate increases. From 1940 to 1950 the fertility rate and mortality rate were more or less the same (CBR=CDR). After this moment of stabilization, longevity/life expectancy as well as total population size increase significantly, this situation is known as Demographic Momentum/Population Momentum. At this time World War II (1939-1945) takes place, where many people especially the male population died in this war. In this situation, people started to mix with other races, caste, religions, and the marriage system become exogamic. Thus, war does not affect the population growth severely, the growth rate remains more or less the same. This condition is known as ‘Baby Boom’. From 1960 to 1970 invention of the anti-biotic, Medical Revolution take place and modern public health methods were introduced to developing countries together with campaigns of inoculation against infectious diseases, use of antibiotics in their treatment has rapidly reduced the death rate but the birth rate remains constant. So, the population in these countries grows rapidly. From 1970 to 1980 the quantum jumps of agricultural production take place, which provides adequate nutritious food, leading to population growth in developing countries. During the 1990S developing countries faces the problem of population explosion. Due to the medical revolution, the death rate declined, life expectancy increased; but awareness among the female population does not spread, some of them remain illiterate, which leads to a high birth rate. Thus, population growth increases. After the 1990’S it is observed that the population growth rate in developing countries tends to decrease due to better education facilities, increasing awareness about the use of contraceptives, family planning, massive industrialization, etc. Thus, with the help of economic and socio-cultural development, developing countries will decrease the growth of population in near future.
COMPARISON OF POPULATION GROWTH PATTERN IN BETWEEN DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
If we review the history of population growth ever since the world started experiencing high growth in 1750, we find that the rate of population growth experienced by the developed countries has been higher than that experienced by developing countries until 1950. After the second world war, the mid-twentieth century (1950) emerged as a vital turning point in the Modern history of population growth in the world. Since 1950 developing or less developed countries have been recording a massive surge in their population.
Source- Bhende & Kanitkar
PHASES OF POPULATION GROWTH
PRE-INDUSTRIAL PHASE:- During 1650-1750, the average annual rates of growth for the developed and developing regions were low and almost identical.
PHASE OF INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION:-During 1750-1800, the population of the developed countries grew at an annual rate of 0.62 % & that of the developing countries grew at an annual rate of 0.47%. The population of the developed countries grew due to an increase in the food supply which led to better nutrition & a decline in death rate and the population began to increase. The industrial revolution began in Britain in the 18th century which was also responsible for the high growth rate in the developed countries. Population growth in developing countries increase at a minimal rate than the developed countries because there was no positive effect of the industrial revolution. During 1800-1850, the corresponding figures for the developed countries and the developing countries were 0.83% & 0.31% respectively. The growth rate in the developing countries decreased due to epidemics, drought,
famines.
PHASE OF WARFARE:-During 1850-1950, the corresponding figures for the developed countries and the developing countries were 0.9% & 0.6% respectively. During this period, the first & second world war causes massive loss of population in developed countries. The Great Economic Depression occurred in 1928- 1932. The death rate declined in developing countries after the Second World War. The large-scale application of imported medical & health technology & significant improvement in the food production & distribution systems were largely responsible for the success in the mortality front.
PHASE OF BABY BOOM:-During 1940-1950, the population of the developed countries grew at an annual rate of 0.35%. The medical revolution has brought down the mortality rate but the fertility rate was also reduced because the probability of death was low that is why population growth decreased in developed countries but even after that population growth was 0.35% due to population momentum. As a result of the “baby boom” the growth rate in the developed regions increased during 1950- 1960, & afterward had consistently declined. During 1960- 1970, the corresponding figures for the developed countries & the developing countries were 1.10% & 2.77% respectively. In developed countries, there was a massive shortage of male population mainly in European countries. So, there was the mixing of population ratios that leads to the stabilization of the population.
POST BABY BOOM PHASE:-During 1970-1980, in developing countries quantum jump in the agriculture revolution led to the massive population in Southern Asia, India, Philippines. However, since the 1980 s the growth rates in the case of both types of countries have started declining, of course, more sharply in the case of developed nations & only gradually in the case of developing countries. The average annual growth rate of the population in 2007 was only 0.1% in the case of developed countries and 1.5% in the case of developing countries. During this period, in developing countries, the growth rate of the population increased due to natural factors. On the other hand, in developed countries, the growth rate increased due to migration. The population growth pattern in Russia and Germany is negative (death rate > birth rate). They did not have the minimum population to run the automation. So, they will some restrictions relax the visa rules. So that people from other countries can migrate to Russia, Germany, and European countries. They are opening their borders. Projections of population growth in developed and developing countries In the more developed regions, the projected life expectancy increase is from 75 years today to 82 years by mid-century. Among the least developed countries, where life expectancy today is just under 50 years, it is expected to be 66 years from 2045 to 2050. According to the United Nations, during 2005– 2050 the net number of international migrants trying to reach more developed regions is projected to be 98 million, so the population in those regions will likely be influenced by international migration. The median scenario of the UN 2017 world population prospects predicts the following populations per continent in 2050 (compared to the population in 2000), in billions
UN estimates (as of 2017) for world population by the median scenario of the UN 2017 world population prospects. Source: "World Population Prospects - Population Division - United Nations”.esa.un.org. Retrieved 2017-11-29.
POPULATION PROJECTION
The recent population projections tend to take into account detailed trends in fertility, mortality & migration. In 2014 America, Europe & Africa covers approx. 1 billion population respectively & Asia covers 4 billion population. In 2050 it will change 1 billion more in Asia & 1 billion more growth in Africa. (Source: Hans Rosling Discusses Pre-Conceived Notions and a Fact-Based World View-CGI U 2015). Simon acknowledges that in the next 50 years there may be some problems created by population growth, he argued that eventually, adjustment mechanisms will take care of these problems.
POSITIVE EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH
Population growth has a positive effect such as producing & consuming better. This helps improve a country's economy &living standard. A huge population provides a large domestic market for the economy. (www.)
Simon views people as the “ultimate resource”, a vast pool of imagination, skill & industry that we should not try to limit. Not all people agree that population growth is a problem but the excessive population is a horrible problem.
NEGATIVE EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH
Population growth can also cause problems such as shortage of food, the depletion of non-renewable resources, medicine & fresh air (The report of WORLD AIR QUALITY in 2019, considered DELHI as the fifth most polluted town in WORLD). These problems occur mostly in poor developing countries. Those types of countries also suffer a high mortality rate.
A large population makes more demand on the earth’s resource which create several problems like-A. Urbanization, B. Climate change, C. Ozone layer depletion, D. Soil degradation.
Population growth also hampering our biodiversity. For example, coral reefs are destroyed by high temperatures whereas sometimes indirectly human activity plays a vital role & damage to wildlife habitats.
Create unemployed educated people. In this case, the mass of people are highly educated but they failed to get a job. On the other hand, corruption may take place. So the growing population also creates a low standard of living.
In the developed countries in general, the birth rate is low & the population growth is slow or stationary i.e. in some European countries like France, Germany, Denmark, Luxembourg, Russia, Austria, Finland, Italy, Norway, etc. population tends to decrease(In 1975-2005 average annual population growth rate below 1% whereas Australia, Canada, Iceland &United States had experienced average annual population growth rate 1% or slight above i.e. 1.3%, 1.1%, 1.0%,1.0% respectively). The growth pattern of Australia & New Zealand is nearly similar to those of West European countries, it is weighted by the high immigration rate. Population growth patterns in Russia (0.1) & Germany (-0.2) are negative (DR>BR) & they did not have the minimum population to run the automation. So, people from other countries can easily migrate to Russia & Germany & European countries as they open their borders. Govt. may take initiative about developing & underdeveloped countries.
For example, in 1980 China adopt a one-child policy& promote economic development & another example like in Brazil if couples are increase population they would be awarded & “Hum do, ha-mare do” (India).
CONCLUSION:-There is a need for education as well as mental development & awareness among the mass public. If developed countries give a huge amount of job opportunities to the people of developing countries, automatically they migrate towards developed countries. On the other hand, if developed countries offer to consume the surplus resource carried by developing & developing countries, then automatic equilibrium in terms of population distribution takes place. Due to lack of money & medical facilities’ developing countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, India, Philippines, etc.) & developing countries (Niger, Central African Republic, South Sudan, Burundi, etc.) are suffering from the problem of health hygiene, diseases, etc. If they are aware that their baby has the potentiality to live then they obviously reduce to make a child. Nowadays most of the developing countries are either 2nd stage or 3rd stage of DT. As a citizen, it is hoped that shortly in near future India will enter the fourth stage, the low stationary stage. Excessive population growth also hampers the earth’s resources. So, must be used properly
No comments:
Post a Comment